Last week,
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Burma in the midst
of a massive political thaw. For decades the West has shunned the Asian
country, whose ruling generals brutally repressed their own people. But
with the government showing signs of a liberalizing shift, Burma is
giddy with change.
In November 2010, the
military regime released opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner
Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for most of the past
two decades. Clinton’s visit—the first by an American secretary of state
in more than half a century—marks another milestone. Both acts have
been initiated by newly elected President Thein Sein, who has surprised
democracy advocates and rankled hardliners with his swift and radical
reforms: legalizing unions and public protest; loosening the shackles on
the state press; and releasing hundreds of political prisoners.
Thein Sein’s boldest move has been a
break with China. In September the president halted the controversial
$3.6 billion Myitsone dam, a project funded by Chinese investors to
generate electricity for millions of Chinese. The project has been
vehemently opposed by locals, mainly due to the planned relocation of
some 10,000 villagers. But few expected the government to hear their
complaints, much less halt the project. “This was the first time the
government has acknowledged public opinion,” says Than Htut Aung, a
leader of the dam opposition. “It represents a revolutionary change in
the country.”
Experts say the rift over the dam
is indicative of Burma’s intention to lessen its longstanding dependence
on China, which has been a major source of trade and aid in the wake of
crippling Western sanctions. Last year, China pumped $8 billion into
Burma’s economy, nearly a third of the country’s GDP and a fourfold
increase over Chinese investment last year, according to local media
reports. Despite China’s cash infusion, though, dissatisfaction with the
superpower is rampant. “All they do is take our minerals and
resources,” says a teacher in Rangoon, who requested anonymity. “China
doesn’t help us grow or invest in our development. That’s why we need to
turn more to countries like America.”
The cold shoulder to China may also
be a concession to the West by the government, says Sean Turnell of
Sydney’s Macquarie University, an analyst of Burma affairs. “Clearly,
there’s a political calculation, too—a playing of the ‘China card’ with
respect to Burma’s international relations,” he says. “This decision was
the first real marker of serious intent—that what is going on in Burma
is not just simply nice words.”
Local diplomats and dissidents
agree. “The changes haven’t just been startling, they’ve been
revolutionary,” says a Western diplomat in Rangoon. “And they have been
constant. Sometimes it’s hard to keep up, with new reforms announced
almost every day. There is still a lot to be done, but Burma has gone
from darkness to a kind of sunrise, practically overnight.”
“Sometimes it’s hard to keep up, with new reforms announced almost every day. There is still a lot to be done, but Burma has gone from darkness to a kind of sunrise, practically overnight.”
Even Suu Kyi, who has long spurned
compromise with the regime, has signaled confidence in Burma’s thaw.
After meeting with Thein Sein, she announced she could work with him to
move Burma forward. In late November, her National League for Democracy
(NLD), formerly outlawed from politics, was allowed to re-register as a
party, with the intention of contesting the next by-elections. Senior
party leaders told Newsweek that Suu Kyi intends to run for
Parliament, and she is widely expected to make a bid for the presidency
in the 2015 general election.
“It’s Burma rebooted,” says U Tin
Oo, the 84-year-old second-in-command at the NLD, who has been at Suu
Kyi’s side for decades, including a 14-year stint in prison. “Everything
is happening with a speed we couldn’t even foresee,” he said at NLD
headquarters. Once a gloomy building under watch from goons in
sunglasses, it’s now a beehive of activity. Party volunteers register
young new members. Huge posters of Suu Kyi and her father, national hero
Aung San, cover the walls, while Suu Kyi DVDs and buttons are on sale
at several tables. “It’s completely revolutionary,” Oo says.
Most
here believe the reforms are genuine, and a sign that sanctions have
worked. Once among Asia’s richest countries, Burma has seen its economy
all but collapse, leaving its 62 million people among Asia’s poorest,
earning on average $2.20 a day. Most banks are not allowed to handle
transactions involving Burma—effectively blocking remittances from
overseas—and credit cards cannot be used inside the country. Inflation
is rampant; for example, most vehicles are secondhand heaps sold for
scrap, yet sell for exorbitant prices. Still, things have been getting
better since the thaw. “Before, these junk cars cost $30,000,” says U
Moe Kyaw, head of the country’s largest independent research firm, MMRD.
“Now they have dropped to $10,000.”
It’s this
desperate situation that likely drove the government to try reforms, in
hopes of attracting investment. “We have to increase development,” says a
local government monitor. “Before, we just had too much China. We were
being cornered, putting all of our fruit in one basket. We need more
development and a better balance.”
Despite the
country’s optimism, most Burmese realize it will take years to phase
out sanctions and restore international ties, not to mention rebuild
civil society out of the shambles of a police state. Another concern is
ethnic infighting, which has recently flared up in the restive northern
border areas, where a dozen ethnic groups—some with large armies—have
battled the government since independence from the British in 1948. Last
month, Thein Sein re-launched peace talks with many of the rebel
groups.
“He’s
really moving things forward on so many fronts at once, it’s
astonishing,” says another Western diplomat who regularly comes for
meetings in Burma, including several with both the president and Sui
Kyi. “He’s stuck his neck out so far that [the military] won’t even need
to chop it off. If he doesn’t get results and recognition from the
West, it will fall off.”
Luckily for
Thein Sein, recognition from the West seems to be guaranteed. Last
week, Clinton told the president that the U.S. intends to loosen
restrictions on aid groups operating in Myanmar, and more measures would
follow if the government continued to reform and to release political
prisoners. After her own meeting with Clinton, Suu Kyi gave a grudging
nod to an ease in sanctions, just not immediately. “If we go forward
together, all of us, the opposition, the government and the
international community, there will be no turning back from the road to
democracy,” she said. “We are not on that road yet, but we hope to get
there as soon as possible.”
Sanctions
against Burma may remain in place for some time, since they are the
trump card to push for further reforms. This rankles local businessmen
and overseas investors, who yearn for fewer restrictions. Resource-rich
Burma has considerable oil and gas reserves, pristine forests, and most
of the world’s jade, a stone highly prized by China.
Despite the
ongoing sanctions, it’s impossible not to smell the intoxicating
fragrance of opportunity in Burma these days. All flights to the country
are booked, not only by tourists but also by investors eager for an
early piece of Burma’s economy, which could boom once sanctions are
lifted. “We aren’t just ready to go but itching to do so whenever things
change, and everyone expects that within months, if not weeks,” said
one Bangkok executive, who noted that many hotel chains already have
sites staked out.
“I’m
cautiously, cautiously optimistic,” says Oo, the longtime ally of Suu
Kyi. “This is all just a slight flicker of democracy. But through that
flicker, we hope to build and increase it a little, and a little more,
to make democracy burn brightly in Burma.”
Ron Gluckman is a journalist who has lived in Asia since 1991 and has been visiting and writing on Burma since 1993.
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