Iran blinks in face of US warships

Posted: 21 Jan 2012 05:52 PM PST

From the NYT:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Saturday that it considered the likely return of American warships to the Persian Gulf part of routine activity, backing away from previous warnings to Washington not to re-enter the area.

The statement may be seen as an effort to reduce tensions after Washington said it would respond if Iran made good on a threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane for oil exports from the gulf.

“U.S. warships and military forces have been in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East region for many years, and their decision in relation to the dispatch of a new warship is not a new issue, and it should be interpreted as part of their permanent presence,” a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander, Hossein Salami, told the official IRNA news agency.

On Jan. 3, after President Obama signed new sanctions aimed at stopping Iran’s oil exports, the Iranian government ordered the [USS] Stennis not to return — an order interpreted by some analysts in Iran and Washington as a blanket threat to any United States carrier.

“I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf,” Iran’s army chief, Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, said at the time. “We are not in the habit of warning more than once.”

Washington says it will return, and Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said any move to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the world’s sea-borne traded oil passes, would be seen as a “red line,” requiring a response.

Apparently, Iranian machismo evaporates when there is a credible response. Elder of Ziyon

Gamesmanship over Iran continues

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 11:30 AM PST

From BBC:

EU member states have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian crude oil to put pressure on the country over its nuclear programme.

The move is expected to be announced formally at an EU foreign ministers' meeting at the end of January.

The US, which recently imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, welcomed the news.

From Sky News:

The UK would respond militarily if Iran carries out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Defence Secretary has warned.

Philip Hammond used a speech in Washington DC to warn Iran that any attempt to close the key Gulf trade route would be "unsuccessful" and could be stopped in part by the Royal Navy.

"Any attempt by Iran to do this would be illegal and unsuccessful," he said in a speech at the Atlantic Council.

"Our joint naval presence in the Arabian Gulf, something our regional partners appreciate, is key to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for international trade.

"It is in all our interests that the arteries of global trade are kept free, open and running. Disruption to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would threaten regional and global economic growth."

Iran has threatened to block the 34-mile wide strait in retaliation for a planned EU trade embargo on Iranian oil.

From Christian Science Monitor:

If Iran is hoping that China will buy more of its oil to make up the exports it is slated to lose because of a European embargo on Tehran’s crude it will be disappointed, Chinese analysts here predict.

Beijing “will not take the risk for Iran’s benefit” of angering the United States and becoming too dependent on one source of oil, says Ma Xiaolin, a commentator on Middle East affairs and head of the Beijing-based BLSHE economic consultancy.

From NYT:

If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.

(h/t Ian) Elder of Zion