Sunday, May 13, 2012

Greece: Repeat Election Likely

There are major disincentives for Venizelos and Samaras to try and govern with 149 MPs. They would be accused of a constitutional coup for the sole purpose of putting through 12 billion euros' ($15.5 billion) worth of budget cuts in June, and social unrest outside parliament - as well as uproariousness inside - would be likely. New Democracy and Pasok would lose MPs and voters as precipitously as before. Finally, they would help to achieve what the left never managed, its unification around SYRIZA, and the strengthening of SYRIZA's hand in an inevitable repeat election.
The fourth and final scenario is therefore likely, that Venizelos fails to win over the Democratic Left, and fails or chooses not to secure its absence in a vote of confidence. Greece's aloof president, Karolos Papoulias, would then convene the party leaders in a last-ditch effort at a national unity government. Failing that, Greece will hold another election in June.

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