Thursday, February 2, 2012

Thousands Take to Streets in Protest of Right-to-Work Law

The Indiana Senate voted 28-22 Wednesday to pass the so-called 'right-to-work' bill that forces unions to represent workers who do not pay dues. The bill is widely seen as an attack on the ability of private sector unions to organize and to carry out political activity. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (R) signed the bill into law shortly after.
Advocates for labor rights stress that unions negotiate for better working conditions for everybody, not just union members, and that barring these payments is a blow to labor organizing. Indiana is the first state in the manufacturing belt to pass such a bill, though it is the twenty-third 'right-to-work' state in the country. The bill created such controversy in Indiana that Democrats in Senate repeatedly walked out over what they described as Republicans' unwillingness to hear debate.    Read more

By Kristen Gwynne | AlterNet

Romney: "I'm not concerned with the very Poor."

Oh, dear. Robot Romney's wires have malfunctioned again, jut when he should have been soaking up his win in Florida last night.
Check out this unfortunate soundbite from a CNN interview this morning, in which the .006%er said he wasn't concerned about the very poor:
“I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there,” Romney told CNN. “If it needs repair, I’ll fix it. I’m not concerned about the very rich, they’re doing just fine. I’m concerned about the very heart of the America, the 90 percent, 95 percent of Americans who right now are struggling.”    Read more

By Sarah Seltzer | AlterNet

Why We Got Ayn Rand Instead of FDR: Thomas Frank on How Tea Party 'Populism' Derailed a New New Deal

An appropriate metaphor for the conservative revival is the classic switcheroo, with one fear replacing another, theoretical emergencies substituting for authentic  ones, and a new villain shuffling onstage to absorb the brickbats meant for another. The conservative renaissance rewrites history according to the political demands of the moment, generates thick smokescreens of deliberate bewilderment, grabs for itself the nobility of the common toiler, and projects onto its rivals the arrogance of the aristocrat. Nor is this constant redirection of public ire a characteristic the movement developed as it went along; it was present at the creation. Indeed, redirection was the creation.
Drawer of Water, Hewer of Bullshit
The call that awakened the rebellion came not from some itinerant IWW organizer but from a TV “rant” delivered on February 19, 2009, by one Rick Santelli, a business reporter standing on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade— a reporter ranting, let us be clear, not against the traders who surrounded him but on their behalf. In retrospect, there would be few better examples of the spirit of inversion that drives  the conservative revival.
Rick Santelli had criticized many aspects of the bank bailouts over the preceding months, but on that day in February when he had the ear of the nation, the part of the  TARP that drew his disgust was, significantly, the element designed to help homeowners modify the terms of certain underwater mortgages, making payments more affordable and thus preventing foreclosures. It was the only part of TARP that was intended to directly benefit individual borrowers rather than institutional players, and thus it was supposed to help make the program popular. Instead, it brought down the wrath of this man Santelli, who found it inconceivable that such an initiative was even under consideration. “This is America!” he yelled, working himself into a rage.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

LAPD Deputy Chief Asks Obama About Marijuana Legalization


Why is Obama So Chicken, Unwilling to Even Address the Question of Pot and the Failed Drug War?

Pot policy questions were front-and-center in the White House's "Your Interview With the President" YouTube campaign, but Obama refused to acknowledge them.
 
 
 “We need to rethink and decriminalize our marijuana laws.”
Can you guess which 2012 presidential candidate said the above statement? You’d be forgiven for thinking Ron Paul, or even Gary Johnson, since both have publicly advocated for reforming our country’s drug laws. You’d be forgiven for guessing anyone but Barack Obama, based on his actions during the past few years, but it was. It may be hard to believe, but President Obama is the same person who once called for reforming our marijuana laws, and deemed the drug war an “utter failure” during his 2004 campaign for the US Senate. Despite previous calls for reform, on Monday night, when faced with over 70,000 individuals urging him to address the issue of marijuana prohibition, Obama's only response was his silence. NORML and Law Enforcement Against Prohibition posted two of the most popular questions submitted to the White House’s recent Q&A on YouTube, alongside hundreds of others on the topic of marijuana law reform, but Obama offered no response or acknowledgement.
This recent attempt at citizen engagement, entitled “Your Interview With the President,"  was launched to coincide with the State of the Union Address. The concept was simple. Anyone could submit a text or video question through the White House YouTube channel, before the public voted on them over the course of the week. The highest rated questions would be selected for Obama to address. On Tuesday, January 24th, NORML submitted a question of our own, which inquired:
“With over 850,000 Americans arrested in 2010, for marijuana charges alone, and tens of billions of tax dollars being spent locking up non-violent marijuana users, isn’t it time we regulate and tax marijuana?”
The question exploded in popularity and received more than 4,000 votes in the first several hours, making it the 2nd highest rated question. Much to our surprise, that evening the question was removed from the YouTube channel and flagged as “inappropriate.” In response, an upset contingent of citizens flooded the page with marijuana law reform questions. Initially, many of their inquiries were met with censorship as well, but by the end of the week it seemed the moderator had given up and most reform questions remained posted. When voting closed on January 28th, marijuana related questions accounted for 105 out of the top 160 questions and received more than 72,000 votes in total. Individual reposts of NORML’s question netted well over 20,000 combined. A video posted by Law Enforcement Against Prohibition came in second overall, and inquired:
"Mr. President, my name is Stephen Downing, and I'm a retired deputy chief of police from the Los Angeles Police Department. From my 20 years of experience I have come to see our country’s drug policies as a failure and a complete waste of criminal justice resources. According to the Gallup Poll, the number of Americans who support legalizing and regulating marijuana now outnumbers those who support continuing prohibition. What do you say to this growing voter constituency that wants more changes to drug policy than you have delivered in your first term?"
We waited with anticipation until last night when President Obama took to his webcam and began addressing the questions. After about an hour came and went with some unsubstantial discussion about jobs, a question from an internet comedian, talk of the Obama’s upcoming wedding anniversary, and the President offering to check out the resume of an attendee’s spouse, the “interview” ended, with not a single word spoken about marijuana prohibition. It seems they found silence to be more effective than censorship.
It is regrettable that since taking up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue it seems “hope and change” became “more of the same,” at least on the marijuana issue. Raids against medical marijuana programs have continued and intensified under the current administration, while the Department of Justice lodged threats of intervention at California when they even considered legalizing cannabis in 2010. The United States currently arrests over 800,000 Americans every year for marijuana charges, the majority of which are for possession alone, to the tune of billions of taxpayer dollars. The ongoing drug war continues to disproportionately affect communities of color, who are arrested in staggering numbers completely out of sync with their use rates. Under our unregulated system, children can currently access marijuana with greater ease than regulated products such as cigarettes or alcohol. Meanwhile, the legalization and regulation of cannabis has the potential to bring in large amounts of tax revenue and create a brand new, employment rich industry. All of these things taken into consideration make the president’s continual skirting of the issue all the more frustrating.
"Inappropriate?" What is more appropriate to discuss at a time like this than fiscal responsibility and civil liberties? President Obama once pledged to have “science and the scientific process…inform and guide decisions” of his Administration, and many of us are still holding out hope he will finally follow through on that promise.
Throughout his presidency, he played off the social media and grassroots strategies that propelled his 2010 campaign. President Obama utilized modern communication tools such as Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube throughout his first term to engage with the American people. The programs varied from YouTube video town halls, to Twitter Q&As, to petition drives, but the general concept was always to solicit policy and reform ideas from the general public, and address them in a formal and intelligent way. Many saw these as perfect opportunities to raise the issue of marijuana prohibition, and as a platform for an otherwise neglected issue to be seriously addressed. In practice, it never seemed to go that way for marijuana reform advocates. Through each of the previous nine efforts of this nature, questions on ending the drug war and legalizing marijuana have finished at the top every time and have typically dwarfed any other issue in volume of responses. Each time the administration has either ridiculed the question, ignored it entirely, or given it a vapid response. In this regard, the latest snub is simply a continuation of the status quo.
It is immensely disappointing that, yet again, the administration has declined the opportunity to discuss the very serious issue of ending marijuana prohibition in this country. For the ninth time, the White House has solicited the American people for direct input on the issues they cared about, and then, when the resulting answers called overwhelmingly for marijuana law reform, President Obama ignored the will of the American. Over half of the country now supports regulating and taxing marijuana; we can only hope that during the general election the issue is addressed with the respect and urgency it demands. If things continue as they are, President Obama very well may earn the dubious honor of running to the right of his predecessor George W. Bush on the marijuana issue.
President Obama once stated that marijuana legalization is an entirely “legitimate topic for debate.” The American people are clearly ready for that debate, Mr. President. When will you be?

Shocking Ways Capitalism Is Failing

Shocking Ways Capitalism Is Failing Working America

Without a dramatic rethink, our "free-enterprise" system may never again provide enough decent jobs for those who need them.
 
 
Capitalism is coming apart at the seams and the middle-class is paying the price. This week’s news alone bombards us with examples of how, absent a dramatic rethink, our "free-enterprise" system may never again provide enough decent jobs for those who need and want them. 
1. iSlavery
Apple is arguably the world’s most successful company. Yet most of the 700,000 jobs needed to produce its cherished products are located abroad, especially in China. Why doesn’t Apple manufacture in the United States? Charles Duhigg and Keith Bradsher writing for the New York Times reveal that Apple is looking for a cheap, “flexible” workforce that can be put to work whenever and wherever it is needed on the company's terms. 
One chilling example concerns the manufacture of glass screens for the iPhone to replace plastic screens which are easily scratched. With only weeks to go before the phone’s release in 2007, the late Steve Jobs demanded a switch to glass. But to get that done on time required deploying the pliable workforce of the giant Chinese manufacturing firm, Foxconn:
    “They could hire 3,000 people overnight,” said Jennifer Rigoni, who was Apple’s worldwide supply demand manager until 2010, but declined to discuss specifics of her work. “What U.S. plant can find 3,000 people overnight and convince them to live in dorms?” 
    In mid-2007, after a month of experimentation, Apple’s engineers finally perfected a method for cutting strengthened glass so it could be used in the iPhone’s screen. The first truckloads of cut glass arrived at Foxconn City in the dead of night, according to the former Apple executive. That’s when managers woke thousands of workers, who crawled into their uniforms — white and black shirts for men, red for women — and quickly lined up to assemble, by hand, the phones. Within three months, Apple had sold one million iPhones. Since then, Foxconn has assembled over 200 million more.  
Little wonder that Apple just announced that it doubled its already enormous profits over the Christmas holidays. Like the Pharaohs of old, it’s always paid to build great things on the backs of slave labor. 
2. The Bain of Our Middle-Class Existence
A day doesn’t go by without suffering through another Mitt Romney defense of his career at Bain Capital, his highly profitable leveraged buy-out firm. Mitt repeatedly tells us that Bain created tens of thousands of jobs at Staples, Domino’s Pizza, Sealy, Brookstone, Sports Authority, Burger King, Burlington Coat Factory, Dunkin’ Donuts, and Toys 'R' Us.
For a moment let’s put aside the fact that Bain also drove a large number of companies into bankruptcy while loading them up with debt and extracting enormous profits along the way. Instead, let’s focus on the type of jobs that Staples, Domino’s et al. produce for the American middle-class. While these jobs are not as slavish as those sought after by Apple in China, most Bain companies pay so little and have so few benefits that it is impossible to support a middle-class existence from the jobs they create. 
Since Romney likes to brag about Staples, we took a closer look at its average hourly pay (as reported on Glassdoor.com). Out of 61 job classifications listed, only three provide starting salaries of $20 or more per hour. The vast majority of those 61 jobs categories have pay scales that begin at $7 and $8 per hour and scale up over time to $13 or $14 an hour. I’d like to see Mitt raise his dog on that. 
But wait! There really is some fairness in our economy when it comes to taxes. If you work at Staples and somehow climb your way up to a middle-class salary, you might be paying the same tax rate as Mitt who earns $20 million a year. Then again, since Mitt paid only 13.9% on his 2010 taxes, you might even pay a little more counting all your state and local taxes. (More on how he does it below.) 
3. Surprise! Federal Auditors Find Big Pay for Bailed-Out Bankers
While the middle-class suffers, top executives are raking it in yet again, even at the companies bailed out by our tax dollars. You may recall that the Obama administration demanded that executives at the top seven bailed-out firms receive no more than $500,000 a year. Congress complied by passing a law to set up a “special master” to administer the salary cap. Well, this week we discovered that the special master got mastered, according to federal auditors. 
Apparently, the bailed-out companies teamed up with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and company to pressure the special master to allow salaries 10 times as high for these failed executives. “Forty-nine people received packages worth $5 million or more from 2009-2011,” according to the auditor’s report. (What the auditor failed to mention is that the law only applies to direct bailout money. It does not cover the big Wall Street firms that took trillions in hidden loans from the Federal Reserve to avoid collapse. Those top bankers earn much more than those at the seven bailed-out firms.)
So what was the excuse for busting the pay cap? Without fatter paychecks, these poor executives would...quit. 
Here’s the argument one bailed-out company used to claim a “hardship” exemption so the employee could receive at least $1 million in cash: “This individual is in their early 40s, with two kids in private school, who is now considered cash-poor.” Such people “would not meet their monthly expenses” if the $500,000 a year cap were applied to him. Ouch!
Why not let this executive walk? After all, his or her firm was a failure. It was only saved from destruction because of the generosity of the taxpayer. Where’s that executive going to go anyway, and couldn’t a suitable replacement be found at $500,000 a year?
Just count all the alleged “laws of capitalism” that are broken in this example: 1) the original bailout instead of bankruptcy; 2) the irreplaceable executive in an economy with massive layoffs even in the financial sector; and 3) a financial wage scale having no connection to real value produced (especially since the firm produced negative value and needed to be bailed out).
So while the Apple workers in China get up in the middle of the night from their company dorms to assemble phones, and while Staples workers try to live on $8 an hour, we the taxpayers are supporting financial executives who can’t make ends meet on $500,000 a year?
4. Economically Addicted to War
The news is hot this week with military strife. Iraq is drifting back to civil war. Afghanistan is already there. Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz, and the New York City police got nabbed using an anti-American Muslim training film on 1,400 of its officers. What does this all add up to? Spending trillions on the military and then asking the middle-lass to tighten its belt to make up for deficits.
Since W.W.II pulled the U.S. out of the Great Depression, massive military expenditures have been used repeatedly to keep the economy near full-employment. During the Cold War, these expenditures contributed mightily to a new form of state capitalism where public funds were used to subsidize private corporations which supplied the military. Along the way, this process also helped prop up the middle-class in defense industry jobs. 
But over the last decade this military Keynesianism got a new wrinkle. The U.S. went to war without paying for it, thereby racking up nearly a trillion dollars in new debt. At the same time an enormous tax cut was handed over to the super-rich which proceeded to spend a good deal of it in the Wall Street casino which then crashed. In total, the unfunded wars, the tax cuts and the economic crash account for the entire deficit problem. Let me repeat, there would be no deficit at all were it not for the Bush tax cuts, the two unfunded wars and the Wall Street crash.  
Nevertheless the middle-class must pay. We are told that the real problem is “entitlements,” including public support for healthcare, education, unemployment benefits and Social Security. Therefore we must cut, cut, cut, to pay for military adventurism and the lifestyles of our financial oligarchs. 
5. Mitt Slithers Through the “Carried Interest” Loophole
Of course, one of the big news items of the week was Mitt’s tax returns, which revealed that he paid only 13.9 percent in federal taxes instead of the 30-plus percent high-income earners are supposed to pay. Like Warren Buffett, Mr. Romney probably pays a lower tax rate than his secretary at Bain Capital. How does he get away with that?
It’s not just that he has a legion of tax sharpies who know how to hide his money in secret Swiss accounts and in the Grand Cayman Islands. The real culprit is a gigantic tax loophole called “carried interest” that allows private equity moguls and hedge fund honchos to essentially lie about what they do for a living.
You will hear Mitt wax euphoric about how hard he worked at Bain to obtain his riches. What he doesn’t tell you is that he used the carried interest loophole to hide all that hard work from federal taxes. Instead of paying himself an income for the real work he performed (which would be taxed at 35 percent), he hid his income within a slice of the profits so that he could claim it as capital gains (which is taxed at 15 percent). If he worked at a big bank doing exactly the same kind of work and got big stock options as his bonus, he would have to pay 35 percent. But thanks to the largess of Congress, he and billionaires in the private equity and hedge fund rackets pay only 15 percent. And of course, every effort to remove this loophole has been stalled by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. 
This loophole is the poster child example of how the super-rich enhance their wealth at the expense of the rest of us. And the rest of us do indeed make up the difference either through increased taxes or decreased services. 
6. How the Gringrich/Freddie Tryst Distorts History
This week also treated us with the release of Newt’s $600,000 a year consulting contract with Freddie Mac. Did he get paid for influence-peddling or for his prescient historical insights? Who cares? As sordid as his deal may have been, the real damage comes from the analysis of the financial crash that accompanies the story. We hear again and again by all, including the media, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two troubled government housing agencies, caused the financial meltdown. 
Not true!
Let’s start with some basic facts about these corporations. They are not government agencies. They are private corporations that have the implicit backing of the government to help provide a massive mortgage market for middle-class Americans (or they were before the crash). The big mistake was allowing these agencies to become for-profit organizations in the first place. But that’s another story.
The widely repeated erroneous analysis claims that Fannie and Freddie caused the crash by underwriting risky housing mortgages. Ron Paul, in particular, blames the Community Reinvestment Act for pushing Fannie and Freddie to buy up “risky” loans that enable underserved minorities in particular to obtain mortgages. 
But Paul, who should know better, has it dead wrong. CRA mortgages were standard mortgages and not risky ones. Their default rates are just like other standard mortgages given to Anglo home buyers. CRA, in short, had absolutely nothing to do with Wall Street’s reckless gambling as big banks and hedge funds bought up risky mortgages and sold them in even riskier mortgage-related securities.
Fannie and Freddie also wanted in on that enormously profitable Wall Street derivative game. But they got there very, very late just as the crisis was starting to unfold. These flawed private/government backed agencies didn’t cause what already was fully developed. Instead they were left holding the bag. You can’t blame them for the mess that Wall Street already created.
Who suffers? The middle-class homeowner who is already underwater due to the housing crash, and those who will purchase homes in the future. The drumbeat of attacks on Freddie and Fanny will surely lead to the privatization of those functions, which in turn will drive up the costs of mortgages for the rest of us. 
How do we put America back to work?
These recent examples demonstrate yet again that "free-enterprise" on its own can not create enough middle-class jobs. Neither Apple, nor Bain-Staples, nor Wall Street, nor deficit reduction will get us there. By the way, neither will small business. 
We need to recognize that modern financialized capitalism is deeply flawed. Without enormous government support, it cannot function. Without enormous government support, there will be no sizable middle-class. 
The solution is both simple and difficult for us to accept. We need to use public money to create jobs and decent wages doing the things that need doing!  
  • We need more education? Then make higher education virtually free as we did at the end of W.W.II. 
  • We need alternative energy? Then use government funds to perfect the technology as we did with the Manhattan Project to build the A-bomb, and as we did with NASA’s moon shot.
  • We need to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure? Then hire a million workers to do it as we did during the Great Depression.
How do we pay for it? By now that should be conceptually easy: Wall Street should pay for the damage it has done. (A financial transaction tax would be a good first step.) And while we’re at it, get rid of the carried interest loophole so that Romney and the rest of his gang pay the same rates as the rest of us. 
Les Leopold is the executive director of the Labor Institute and Public Health Institute in New York, and author of The Looting of America: How Wall Street's Game of Fantasy Finance Destroyed Our Jobs, Pensions, and Prosperity—and What We Can Do About It (Chelsea Green, 2009).

US of Europe? Economic Collapse

United States of Europe? What it Will Take to Save the Continent from Economic Collapse

The euro is a train wreck. Here's how to solve one of our most urgent economic problems.
 
 
The dilemma Europe now faces is complicated -- not least because the European Union comprises 27 separate sovereign nations and the euro area, where the chief problems lie, is a currency union that has 17 members itself. Beyond that, the euro is flawed both in design and in execution. It hearkens back to the gold standard and its fixed exchange rate system which necessitated a deflationary policy response to the deep downturn of 1929, ending in the Great Depression and World War II. Unless drastic action is taken, we will soon find ourselves in another Great Depression.
A Currency Without a State
Before we get too gloomy, let's remember why the euro exists at all, as these motives are still important. Significantly, after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, there was widespread angst about what the new Germany would look like and whether to even permit its coming into being. Germans, like many other Europeans, felt that a Germany anchored in European-wide institutions was a bulwark against age-old conflicts. So to ensure political cohesion and to allow reunification to proceed, the Germans made a number of political concessions. Germany accepted the Oder-Neisse Line as the definitive eastern border with Poland. Germany paid Russia 55 billion deutsche marks. And the Germans anchored themselves into the western European monetary-political system via a common currency. So the intent behind the euro is harmonization and cohesion.
But the problem is this: no state can have a fixed exchange rate, free flow of capital and independent monetary policy at the same time. Therefore, fixed exchange rate systems always end in trade imbalances that can last for decades and across business cycles, creating so-called debtor or deficit states and creditor or surplus states. This is not a problem during an economic boom. However, if boom turns to bust, the debtor states will become distressed as cash flows supporting debts decline.
In a currency area with a national government like Canada or the United States, the central government alleviates these crises by making transfer payments like unemployment insurance to individual states. A state like Florida or California that is hit hard doesn't go bust easily. But in the euro area there is no fiscal agent making these counter-cyclical transfers; the individual states are on their own. And so the resulting crisis is more severe. The fact is the euro can't work across business cycles without fiscal transfers because some debtor state will always face crisis after each and every business cycle downturn. Put simply, the euro's institutional design was flawed right from the start. In fact, one of its chief architects, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, called the euro "a currency without a state."
It gets worse because official euro budget policy virtually guarantees a deflationary response to every business cycle. The euro designers chose the Stability and Growth Pact, which sought to keep government debt below 60 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and deficits below 3 percent, to prevent large government deficits. And this is the thinking driving euro area policy now. Unfortunately, this approach means that the public sector must cut just when the private sector is cutting too, intensifying downturns, sucking money out of the economy and making the potential for national bankruptcy much greater.
Good Solutions v. Bad Solutions

Of course, the central bank could alleviate this problem by providing national governments with liquidity. Indeed, central banks were founded over 300 years ago specifically to finance budget deficits. The Bank of England was formed in 1694 to help England raise the funds to create a navy to rival France's after England's crushing military defeat by France ended the Nine Years' War in 1690. This kind of funding is out for the euro area. The Lisbon Treaty, the present European Constitution, forbids the European Central Bank from lending to governments, as the euro's designers believed that doing so would weaken the currency.
Therefore, faced with a recession in which some euro nations invariably will have balance of payments deficits, those euro area governments must meet private sector cuts with public sector cuts or face insolvency. This guarantees crisis. Moreover, such an insolvency would boomerang back to the surplus countries which are the deficit countries' creditors. And so both debtors and creditors have strong motivations to make sure no insolvency occurs. This is exactly why we have seen bailout after bailout in the euro area; a national insolvency could end in a cascade of further national and bank insolvencies, creating a global Depression of untold magnitude. A global Depression is the scenario Europe's policymakers fear, and rightly so.
However, the cutting solution -- so-called internal devaluation and austerity -- is not really a solution. This policy is politically unsustainable as unemployment mounts, economic output contracts and national insolvency threatens Europe nonetheless. For quite a while, I have been saying there are three options for the euro zone: monetization, default or breakup. That said, the political costs of breakup are still impossibly high. So I expect some combination of monetization (the creation of money by the central bank) and default.
Austerity Leads to Default, But Transfer Unions Give Stability
Let's take Italy as one example. In Italy's case, you need to run a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of about 5 percent of GDP, merely to keep the debt ratio constant at present yields. Italy won’t ever be able to do so. Therefore, yields for Italian bonds must come down or Italy is insolvent as it must roll over 300 billion euros of debt in the next year alone. And austerity is not going to bring Italian yields back down since that guarantees a recession with private sector cuts being matched by public sector ones.
The bottom line is that Italy, one of Europe's largest economies, faces a dire situation and the solution on offer insures default as a likely outcome without tacit central bank support. That is an outcome which means a run on Italian banks, insolvency in Spain from contagion in Italy, core euro bank insolvency due to exposure to Italian bank and sovereign debt and widespread credit default swap triggers which must be paid by American banks. Conclusion: an Italian default would collapse the entire global financial system in short order.
So, a country as large as Italy will not be allowed to fail. European officials will keep Italy from death's door by hook or by crook because they know how dire an outcome an Italian government default would be.
Greece or Portugal are much smaller economies. They will not receive the same support that Spain or Italy do without a continued quid pro quo in terms of budget cuts and economic austerity, a politically unsustainable path. Therefore, default is likely. The timing of events will be critical in minimizing the knock-on effects of any default.
I don't think the Europeans can keep this from spiraling out of control without creating the dreaded "transfer union" that so many are set against. A transfer union is simply an arrangement in which the stronger parts of a national economy subsidize the weaker parts, just like in the United States, where more economically robust states like New York transfer money to other states through higher taxes, for example, paid to the federal government. These funds can then be distributed in the form of unemployment benefits and other subsidies that help stabilize those weaker economies when they get hit by hard times.
Can Europe accept a transfer union? I hope so. Everyone would win if they can. Transfers across nations would protect the credit rating and solvency of everyone. Germany and the Netherlands could continue to maintain economic growth through export and peripheral economies like Spain and Ireland can regain some measure of economic growth by foregoing drastic austerity plans. Most importantly, this generation now entering the employment market will not have to bear the tremendous social cost of high unemployment that would follow them and limit their earning capacity for decades into the future.
Ordinary Europeans had no idea the euro would join countries at the hip this way and have every reason to feel tricked into the single currency. But this is done and cannot be undone. Let's remember as well that all national economies are transfer unions, even Germany, where there have been trillions of euros in transfers from west to east and south to north over just the past two decades.
Despite the reality of transfer unions, many Europeans are not politically ready for a United States of Europe even though the euro's existence practically mandates it. Europe needs to get ready though. A transfer union means a mild loss to pay for a rainy day in the form of those vital economic stabilizers (again, things like unemployment benefits) that are needed during downturns. Defaults in Italy or Spain, on the other hand, mean the collapse of the entire financial system and a global Depression. The choice is clear.

STOCK MARKET CRASH 1929