It was 72 years ago today that John Winston Lennon was born in
Liverpool, England. In 1960, he formed the Beatles and the group went
on to set sales and Billboard chart records that stand to this day. Its
hard to dispute the wide influence of the Beatles and John Lennon on
popular music and culture, from fashion to hairstyles–and even the
popularity of transcendental meditation after the group’s sojourn in
India with guru Maharishi Yogi.
But stocks? Oddly, enough, John Lennon’s birthday has lined up with
big turning points in the stock market in the past 10 years. The bear
market following the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 bottomed on
October 9, 2002. Stock averages hit their bull market peak five years
later on October 9, 2007. Here we are five years later, so should we
expect this date to be a turning point?
Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest wrote an interesting column on
Tuesday pointing out that there was nothing statistically significant
about stock market bull-bear turning points (there have been 69 of them
in the past century) occurring on the same date twice. Even the month
of October, with 9 of those 69 turning points, versus an average of 5.75
for other months, does not stand out as a statistically significant
harbinger of trend change, despite its reputation as a bear killer, and
as a month for big crashes.
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